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Millicom: Millicom's Strong 2025 Performance Driven by Operational and Financial Growth

Millicom's financial performance in 2025 was marked by significant revenue growth, with service revenues for Q4 reaching $1.55 billion, up 15.9% year-on-year, and an organic growth of 5.2%. The company's adjusted EBITDA reached $778 million for the year, with an EBITDA margin of 47%. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.5, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.05. The company's equity free cash flow (eFCF) was $916 million, or $864 million excluding tower sales proceeds, exceeding guidance. With a robust year-on-year improvement in adjusted EBITDA driven by operational performance, margin enhancement, and positive FX impacts, Millicom demonstrated a strong financial performance.

TIGO

USD 72.89

3.13%

A-Score: 6.5/10

Publication date: February 26, 2026

Full Report

Author: Analystock.ai

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Financial Performance: Adjusted EBITDA of $778M (47% margin) and equity free cash flow of $916M (excluding tower sales $864M), exceeding guidance.
  • Market Expansion & Integration: Operates in 12 countries post-Chile acquisition, with Q4 service revenue up 15.9% YoY ($1.55B) and organic growth of 5.2%.
  • Strategic Acquisitions: Secured 2/3 stake in Coltel ($220M) and Telefonica’s Chile operations ($50M upfront + $150M earn-out), focusing on in-market consolidation.
  • Projected Financial Targets: 2026 equity free cash flow of ≥$900M, leverage near 2.5x by year-end, and 2/3 distribution to shareholders via dividends.
  • Operational Growth Drivers: Colombia’s mobile/home base grew 10% YoY; Guatemala’s revenue driven by network investment and prepaid-to-postpaid migration.

Operational Highlights

The company highlighted success stories in Guatemala, Colombia, and Panama, with Guatemala delivering solid growth, Colombia showing exceptional commercial execution, and Panama returning to solid growth. Millicom's strategic projects, including acquiring a 2/3 stake in Coltel from Telefonica and a transaction with NJJ to acquire Telefonica's operations in Chile, are expected to drive future growth. The Chile transaction is a balance sheet-protected move, with an upfront payment of $50 million and potential earn-out considerations of up to $150 million.

Outlook and Leverage

Millicom's 2026 equity free cash flow is projected to be at least $900 million. The company's leverage is expected to increase due to acquisitions in Colombia, including the $570 million purchase of a 50% stake in Tigo Colombia and $220 million from acquiring Telefonica shares in Coltel. Leverage is anticipated to be around 2.5 by the end of 2026 and within the guided range of 2.0 to 2.5 in 2027. With a current leverage of 2.31, comfortably below the target of below 2.5, Millicom is well-positioned to manage its debt.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

Millicom's current valuation metrics indicate a relatively attractive position, with a P/E Ratio of 9.31, P/B Ratio of 3.36, and Dividend Yield of 5.83%. The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is 5.91, and its Free Cash Flow Yield is 9.62%. With a ROIC of 8.78% and ROE of 37.85%, Millicom demonstrates a strong ability to generate returns. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.2%, indicating a stable outlook for the company.

Millicom's A-Score